Does Good October = Good December?

A wide range of retailers reported stronger-than-expected apparel sales for October. Thomson First Call's average of same-store sales at 21 apparel retailers was up 7.6 percent, against an anticipated an average gain of 1.8 percent.

Kohl's (Menomonee Falls, Wis.) again dominated the charts, with an October same-store sales increase of 18.3 percent. J. C. Penney (Plano, Texas) was up 13.7 percent, The Gap (San Francisco) was 11 percent higher and Nordstrom (Seattle) was up 9.6 percent.

But the picture was not uniformly rosy. J. Crew Group Inc. (New York) reported same-store sales gains of just 0.8 percent. Same-store sales for Federated Department Stores (Cincinnati) were up 0.3 percent. American Eagle Stores (Warrendale, Pa.) declined 2 percent. For Wal-Mart (Bentonville, Ark.), same-store sales were up a (for them) mediocre 4.8 percent for Wal-Mart Stores and down 1.6 percent for Sam's Club.

And same-store sales for Sears Roebuck & Co. (Hoffman Estates, Ill.) plunged 10 percent in October, marking the company's 14th straight monthly sales decline at stores open at least a year. Chairman and ceo Alan Lacy blamed the weak economy for the drop in sales of big-ticket items — particularly home appliances, electronics and fine jewelry.

Given the uneven performance, The New York Times reported, retail analysts remained wary. Chuck Hill, director of research at First Call, said the results were just “O.K.” “There's nothing here that convinces me we're going to have anything other than a lackluster Christmas, ” he said.

Analysts credited October's cold weather for a rise in demand for sweaters and outdoor jackets after an unusually warm September. “But with the sales lost last month captured this month, that makes it a wash — not a big upward trend,” Hill told The Times.

Other analysts pointed out that Saks Inc. (Birmingham, Ala.) was almost flat and May Department Stores (St. Louis) was down 7.1 percent.

The Gap's turnaround was most noteworthy, but not necessarily indicative of boisterous business. One analyst noted that the sales gains were largely fueled by the Old Navy division, which enjoyed a 24 percent sales increase (compared with the rise of only 1 percent posted at the core Gap stores). The reason, according to the analyst, is that Old Navy put out its new fall merchandise at initially low prices. “Last year, they put out signs with `Markdown Madness,'” the analyst observed. “This year, they just put the stuff out cheaper — and it worked for them.

“The Gap is still laboring to distinguish itself from its Old Navy unit and its competitors,” he continued, “and is still not out of the water.”

“Today's consumers are more afraid for their jobs and the savings they've lost in 401(k)'s or mutual funds,” said another analyst. “As a result, they're more skittish about spending than we've seen in a lot of years.”

The analysts said that the stores that did the best offered shoppers something plainly excellent. At the lower-end, stores like Kohl's offered one main thing: price. At Kohl's, Wal-Mart and Target, said an analyst, “shoppers perceive they are getting a bargain.”

Although the numbers were better than expected, uncertainty is still rife in the retail industry. “I wouldn't want to make a bet going forward,” said an analyst. “It's like driving a car through the rearview mirror.”

Analysts watch the weather closely. And this coming weekend, one noted, is supposed to be much warmer. “It's going up to 65 degrees,” he told The Times, “and we'll see if people head back to the malls — or whether they'd rather spend their time raking leaves.”