Retail Sales Trending Higher Than Expected: NRF

The National Retail Federation (Washington, D.C.) is forecasting higher-than-expected retail sales in 2018, specifically citing U.S. tax reform passed earlier this year.

The trade organization predicts that spending at retailers (omitting auto, gasoline stations and restaurants) will reach at least 4.5 percent, according to CNBC, compared to the previous forecast at 3.8 to 4.4 percent. “Higher wages, gains in disposable income, a strong job market and record-high household net worth have all set the stage for a very robust growth in the nation’s consumer-driven economy,” said NRF CEO Matthew Shay.

The organization’s Chief Economist had a slightly different outlook, cautioning that consumers might be leery to part with their disposable income: “Despite this upgrade in our forecast, uncertainty surrounding the trade war and higher-than expected inflation due in part to increased oil prices could make consumers cautious during the fall season,” Jack Kleinhenz said.

Sales in the first half of the year were up 4.8 percent compared to a year earlier.