The UBS Group AG (Basel, Switzerland) is predicting that 75,000 stores will close by 2026, according to Forbes. The financial group claims that online retail’s market share will rise to 25 percent from 16 percent, and with each 1 percent increase in online penetration, between 8000 and 8500 stores will close.
At that current rate, that means 75,000 stores would be forced out of business by 2026, reports Forbes. If 75,000 stores were to close during the next seven years, that means roughly 11,000 stores would be forced to close per year.
Other recent studies are just as glum: The U.S.-based CreditRiskMonitor assigns a score called a “FRISK” to companies with publicly traded bonds or debt. It claims a 96 percent accuracy rate, according to Forbes, and recently gave Neiman Marcus, Francesca’s, Rite Aid and J.Crew a score of “1,” which translates to a 9.99 percent to 50 percent chance of bankruptcy. Retailers who scored a “2,” meaning a 4 percent to 9.99 percent chance of bankruptcy, included JCPenney, Destination Maternity, Stein Mart and Blue Apron, among many others.
And yet another study by the Philippines-based BDO classified retailers into two distinct groups for its findings: Survivors (54 percent) and Thrivers (37 percent).
According to the report, Survivors are those “keeping their eyes on traditional competitors,” while falling behind in technology implementation. Conversely, Thrivers are those “actively planning for the next market correction,” and are e-commerce focused, says Forbes.